Seroprevalence as an Indicator of Undercounting of COVID-19 Cases in a Large Well-Described Cohort.

Introduction: Reported confirmed cases represent a small portion of overall true cases for many infectious diseases. The undercounting of true cases can be considerable when a significant portion of infected individuals are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, as is the case with COVID-19. Seroprevalence studies are an efficient way to assess the extent to which true cases are undercounted during a large-scale outbreak and can inform efforts to improve case identification and reporting. Methods: A longitudinal seroprevalence study of active duty U.S. military members was conducted from May 2020 through June 2021. A random selection of service member serum samples submitted to the Department of Defense Serum Repository was analyzed for the presence of antibodies reactive to SARS-CoV-2. The monthly seroprevalence rates were compared with those of cumulative confirmed cases reported during the study period. Results: Seroprevalence was 2.3% in May 2020 and increased to 74.0% by June 2021. The estimated true case count based on seroprevalence was 9.3 times greater than monthly reported cases at the beginning of the study period and fell to 1.7 by the end of the study. Conclusions: In our sample, confirmed case counts significantly underestimated true cases of COVID-19. The increased availability of testing over the study period and enhanced efforts to detect asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic cases likely contributed to the fall in the seroprevalence to reported case ratio.

Antimicrobial resistance of enteric pathogens in the Military Health System, 2009 - 2019.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhea (AD) can have significant impacts on military troop readiness. Medical providers must understand current trends of enteropathogen antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in service members (SMs) to inform proper, timely treatment options. However, little is known of enteric pathogen profiles across the Military Health System (MHS). The primary objectives of this study were to identify gaps in enteric pathogen surveillance within the MHS, describe the epidemiology of AMR in enteric pathogens, and identify trends across the MHS both within the Continental United States (CONUS) and outside of the Continental United States (OCONUS). METHODS: Health Level 7 (HL7)-formatted laboratory data were queried for all specimens where Salmonella, Shigella, and Campylobacter species, as well as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) (STEC) were isolated and certified between 1 January 2009 - 31 December 2019. Antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) results were queried and summarized where available. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each organism by specimen source, year, and susceptibility testing availability. RESULTS: Among a total of 13,852 enteric bacterial isolates, 11,877 (86%) were submitted from CONUS locations. Out of 1479 Shigella spp. and 6755 Salmonella spp. isolates, 1221 (83%) and 5019 (74%), respectively, reported any susceptibility results through the MHS. Overall, only 15% of STEC and 4% of Campylobacter spp. specimens had AST results available. Comparing AST reporting at CONUS versus OCONUS locations, AST was reported for 1175 (83%) and 46 (78%) of Shigella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively, and for 4591 (76%) and 428 (63%) of Salmonella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed inconsistent enteropathogen AST conducted across the MHS, with differing trends between CONUS and OCONUS locations. Additional work is needed to assess pathogen-specific gaps in testing and reporting to develop optimal surveillance that supports the health of the force.

Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance within the Military Health System during 1 March-31 December 2020.

This report describes SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance conducted by the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Branch and the Next-Generation Sequencing and Bioinformatics Consortium (NGSBC) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Samples and sequence data were from SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring among Military Health System (MHS) beneficiaries from 1 March to 31 December 2020. There were 1,366 MHS samples sequenced from 10 countries, 36 U.S states or territories, and 5 Geographic Combatant Commands, representing approximately 2% of DoD cases in 2020. Genomes from these samples were compared with other public sequences; observed trends were similar to those of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national surveillance in the U.S. with B.1, B.1.2, and other sub-lineages comprising the dominant variants of SARS-CoV-2. Sequence data were used to monitor transmission dynamics on U.S. Navy ships and at military training centers and installations. As new variants emerge, DoD medical and public health practitioners should maximize the use of genomic surveillance resources within DoD to inform force health protection measures.

The Patients Save Lives Program to Facilitate Organ Donor Designation in Primary Care Offices.

BACKGROUND: There are about 120 000 people on the US waiting list for a solid organ transplant; nearly 22 people die every day who could be helped through organ donation. Joining a donor registry and informing one's family of one's preferences increases recovery rates and can avoid misunderstandings during an emotionally difficult time. Although the vast majority of people support organ donation, only about half of adults have joined a state donor registry. Methods. A 3-group design was used. Primary care physician offices were randomly assigned to either web-based training, in-person training, or a control condition. The control condition consisted of a poster and traditional brochure and donor form placed in the waiting room. In the 2 intervention groups, the Patients Save Lives form was distributed during the check-in process in addition to the poster. RESULTS: A total of 1521 physicians and office staff at 81 clinic sites (48 in-person and 33 web-based) received the training; there were 33 control locations. A total of 21 189 patients were exposed to the intervention over a 6-month period; 761 (8.1%) of 9428 people who were not already registered completed the designation form to be organ donors. There were no donor designations in the control group locations. CONCLUSION: Organ donor designation can be incorporated into the office check-in procedure without disrupting the workflow or burdening clinicians. The program is available online and can be sustained inexpensively with cooperation between primary care offices and regional Organ Procurement Organizations.

Epidemiology of Serious Bacterial Infections in Infants Less Than 90 Days in a Military Health System Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Management of suspected serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in infants less than 3 months old is challenging. Understanding the epidemiology of SBI is necessary to inform management decisions. Recent publications have challenged the previously accepted distribution of infections by specimen source and pathogen. We sought to describe the burden of SBIs in previously healthy infants less than 90 days old. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Military Health System database to identify SBI cases among term infants less than 90 days of age from 2005 to 2015. We defined an SBI case as any previously healthy infant with positive cultures for a likely pathogen from blood, urine or cerebrospinal fluid. RESULTS: Of 467,462 live births between January 2005 and September 2015, 3421 infants had positive cultures. After excluding 1781 episodes with isolates considered nonpathogenic or ICD-9 codes for chronic conditions, the overall incidence of SBI was 3.1 cases/1000 live births. The SBI rate dropped from 5.0 cases/1000 live births in 2005 to 2.0 cases/1000 live births in 2015 (P < 0.001 for trend). The most common pathogen was Escherichia coli (51.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective review of 467,462 live births, the incidence of SBI decreased from 5.0/1000 to 2.0/1000 live births over time. We identified no cases of Listeria monocytogenes. These data can help inform decisions related to treatment and management of infants with suspected bacterial infections.

The Rapid Escalation of Fentanyl in Illicit Drug Evidence in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, 2010-2016.

Opioid overdose deaths in the United States quadrupled from 1999 (n = 8050 deaths) to 2015 (n = 33 091 deaths), and the number of deaths associated with synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, increased from 3105 deaths in 2013 to nearly 20 000 deaths in 2016. Given this rapid increase, timely surveillance for drugs in circulation is crucial. However, current surveillance systems used to track drug overdoses do not detect new drugs in circulation quickly. We studied the change in the presence of fentanyl in "stamp bag" drug evidence in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, from 2010 through 2016. Stamp bags are small wax packets with individual stamps that contain mixtures of drugs, most commonly heroin, that law enforcement officers seize and retain as legal evidence. The proportion of stamp bags determined to contain fentanyl or a fentanyl analog was 2.1% in 2014 and rose sharply to 17.1% in 2016. Monitoring the chemical makeup of drug evidence items could help public health authorities identify drug use trends in their jurisdictions.

Characteristics of self-inflicted drug overdose deaths in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Drug overdose mortality is a major public health concern in the United States, with prescription opioids contributing substantially to recent increases in drug overdose deaths. Compared to unintentional drug overdose deaths, relatively little data describes intentional self-inflicted drug overdose deaths (i.e., suicide by drug overdose). The aim of this study was to examine the characteristics of self-inflicted drug overdose deaths, overall and in comparison to unintentional drug overdose deaths. METHODS: We linked vital statistics, prescription drug monitoring program, and toxicology data for self-inflicted and unintentional drug overdose deaths among North Carolina residents in 2012. RESULTS: Most self-inflicted (79.2%) and unintentional (75.6%) drug overdose decedents had a prescription for a controlled substance within one year of death. Toxicology results revealed that antidepressants contributed to a significantly higher percent of self-inflicted compared to unintentional drug overdose deaths (45.0% vs. 8.1%). Among deaths in which commonly prescribed opioids (oxycodone, hydrocodone) or benzodiazepines (alprazolam, clonazepam) contributed to death, a significantly higher percent of self-inflicted drug overdose decedents had a prescription for the substance within 30days of death compared to unintentional drug overdose decedents. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the use of prescription opioids, benzodiazepines, and antidepressants among self-inflicted drug overdose decedents. Importantly, the results indicate that self-inflicted drug overdose decedents were more likely than unintentional drug overdose decedents to have potential contact with the health care system in the weeks preceding death, offering an opportunity for professionals to identify and intervene on risk factors or signs of distress and potential for self-harm.

Impact of North Carolina's motorcycle helmet law on hospital admissions and charges for care of traumatic brain injuries.

BACKGROUND North Carolina requires motorcyclists of all ages to wear federally approved safety helmets. The purpose of this article is to estimate the impact of this state law in terms of hospital admissions for traumatic brain injury (TBI) and associated hospital charges. METHODS Hospital admissions of North Carolina motorcyclists with TBIs and associated hospital charges in 2011 were extracted from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge Data system. We estimated hospital admissions and charges for the same year under the counterfactual condition of North Carolina without a universal motorcycle helmet law by using various substitutes (Florida, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina residents treated in North Carolina). RESULTS North Carolina's universal helmet law prevented an estimated 190 to 226 hospital admissions of North Carolina motorcyclists with TBI in 2011. Averted hospital charges to taxpayer-funded sources (ie, government and public charges) were estimated to be between $9.5 million and $11.6 million for 2011, and total averted hospital charges for 2011 were estimated to be between $25.3 million and $31.0 million. LIMITATIONS Cost estimates are limited to inpatients during the initial period of hospital care. This study was unable to capture long-term health care costs and productivity losses incurred by North Carolina's TBI patients and their caregivers. CONCLUSIONS North Carolina's universal motorcycle helmet law generates health and economic benefits for the state and its taxpayers.

Observed transition from opioid analgesic deaths toward heroin.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, overdose mortality from controlled substances has increased over the last two decades, largely involving prescription opioid analgesics. Recently, there has been speculation on a transition away from prescription opioid use toward heroin, however the impact on overdose deaths has not been evaluated. METHODS: Time series study of North Carolina residents, 2007 through 2013. Monthly ratio of prescription opioid-to-heroin overdose deaths. Non-parametric local regression models used to ascertain temporal shifts from overdoses involving prescription opioids to heroin. RESULTS: There were 4332 overdose deaths involving prescription opioids, and 455 involving heroin, including 44 where both were involved (total n = 4743). A gradual 6-year shift toward increasing heroin deaths was observed. In January, 2007, for one heroin death there were 16 opioid analgesic deaths; in December, 2013 there were 3 prescription opioid deaths for each heroin death. The transition to heroin appears to have started prior to the introduction of tamper-resistant opioid analgesics. The age of death among heroin decedents shifted toward younger adults. Most heroin and opioid analgesic deaths occurred in metropolitan areas, with little change between 2007 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The observed increases in heroin overdose deaths can no longer be considered speculation. Deaths among younger adults were noted to have increased in particular, suggesting new directions for targeting interventions. More research beyond vital statistics is needed to understand the root causes of the shift from prescription opioids to heroin.

Alcohol-attributable deaths and years of potential life lost--11 States, 2006-2010.

Excessive alcohol consumption, the fourth leading preventable cause of death in the United States, resulted in approximately 88,000 deaths and 2.5 million years of potential life lost (YPLL) annually during 2006-2010 and cost an estimated $223.5 billion in 2006. To estimate state-specific average annual rates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and YPLL caused by excessive alcohol use, 11 states analyzed 2006-2010 data (the most recent data available) using the CDC Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) application. The age-adjusted median AAD rate was 28.5 per 100,000 population (range = 50.9 per 100,000 in New Mexico to 22.4 per 100,000 in Utah). The median YPLL rate was 823 per 100,000 (range = 1,534 YPLL per 100,000 for New Mexico to 634 per 100,000 in Utah). The majority of AAD (median = 70%) and YPLL (median = 82%) were among working-age (20-64 years) adults. Routine monitoring of alcohol-attributable health outcomes, including deaths and YPLL, in states could support the planning and implementation of evidence-based prevention strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force to reduce excessive drinking and related harms. Such strategies include increasing the price of alcohol, limiting alcohol outlet density, and holding alcohol retailers liable for harms related to the sale of alcoholic beverages to minors and intoxicated patrons (dram shop liability).

Using GIS to evaluate a fire safety program in North Carolina.

Evaluating program impact is a critical aspect of public health. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a novel way to evaluate programs which try to reduce residential fire injuries and deaths. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the application of GIS within the evaluation of a smoke alarm installation program in North Carolina. This approach incorporates national fire incident data which, when linked with program data, provides a clear depiction of the 10 years impact of the Get Alarmed, NC! program and estimates the number of potential lives saved. We overlapped Get Alarmed, NC! program installation data with national information on fires using GIS to identify homes that experienced a fire after an alarm was installed and calculated potential lives saved based on program documentation and average housing occupancy. We found that using GIS was an efficient and quick way to match addresses from two distinct sources. From this approach we estimated that between 221 and 384 residents were potentially saved due to alarms installed in their homes by Get Alarmed, NC!. Compared with other program evaluations that require intensive and costly participant telephone surveys and/or in-person interviews, the GIS approach is inexpensive, quick, and can easily analyze large disparate datasets. In addition, it can be used to help target the areas most at risk from the onset. These benefits suggest that by incorporating previously unutilized data, the GIS approach has the potential for broader applications within public health program evaluation.

Immune regulation of a chronic bacteria infection and consequences for pathogen transmission.

BACKGROUND: The role of host immunity has been recognized as not only playing a fundamental role in the interaction between the host and pathogen but also in influencing host infectiousness and the ability to shed pathogens. Despite the interest in this area of study, and the development of theoretical work on the immuno-epidemiology of infections, little is known about the immunological processes that influence pathogen shedding patterns. RESULTS: We used the respiratory bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and its common natural host, the rabbit, to examine the intensity and duration of oro-nasal bacteria shedding in relation to changes in the level of serum antibodies, blood cells, cytokine expression and number of bacteria colonies in the respiratory tract. Findings show that infected rabbits shed B. bronchiseptica by contact up to 4.5 months post infection. Shedding was positively affected by number of bacteria in the nasal cavity (CFU/g) but negatively influenced by serum IgG, which also contributed to the initial reduction of bacteria in the nasal cavity. Three main patterns of shedding were identified: i- bacteria were shed intermittently (46% of individuals), ii- bacteria shedding fell with the progression of the infection (31%) and iii- individuals never shed bacteria despite being infected (23%). Differences in the initial number of bacteria shed between the first two groups were associated with differences in the level of serum antibodies and white blood cells. These results suggest that the immunological conditions at the early stage of the infection may play a role in modulating the long term dynamics of B. bronchiseptica shedding. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that IgG influences the threshold of bacteria in the oro-nasal cavity which then affects the intensity and duration of individual shedding. In addition, we suggest that a threshold level of infection is required for shedding, below this value individuals never shed bacteria despite being infected. The mechanisms regulating these interactions are still obscure and more studies are needed to understand the persistence of bacteria in the upper respiratory tract and the processes controlling the intensity and duration of shedding.